September 2018 - Beyond The Breakers Trading

Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending September 21 2018

Greenback turns to Fed’s dot plot for guidance, Oil hits new highs

The most popular topic across financial market headlines is the relentless appreciation witnessed in global oil prices after OPEC and Russia squarely rejected Donald Trump’s demand to boost output over the past weekend.

Brent Crude has soared to levels not seen since November 2014 when it was above $82.00. Looming US sanctions against Iran coupled with a drop in Venezuela’s output could accelerate the tightening of oil markets at a time where OPEC + have ruled out any immediate increases in oil production. This is overall encouraging investors to price in as much good news as possible over the near-term.

I wouldn’t say the dust is completely clear for potential buyers to send prices back towards $100. The medium-term outlook could still be subject to demand-side fears revolving around what potential impact ongoing trade tensions could have on the global economy down the road. If trade tensions around the globe do weigh on growth, demand for oil is likely to take a hit which inevitably risks translating to lower oil prices.

Today’s main event risk for the US economy and perhaps global markets as a whole will be the outcome to the Federal Reserve policy meeting which is widely expected to conclude with a 0.25% increase to US interest rates. With it already being considered a foregone conclusion that interest rates will be raised today, investors will direct their attention towards the economic projections and dot plot projections for clues on potential rate hike timings for next year.

The Dollar has the potential to appreciate if the Federal Reserve expresses optimism over the US economy, shows little concerns about growing tensions and provides fresh insight into rate hike timings beyond December. This would ultimately lead to a risk of weighing down the Dollar’s global counterparts, and would threaten further selling to emerging markets.

Source: FXTM

Weekly Crude Data Shows 2.1M Barrel Decline in Inventories 14 September 2018

EIA: Weekly Crude Data Shows 2.1M Barrel Decline in Inventories

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.4 million barrels per day during the week ending 14 September 2018, which was 442,000 barrels per day less than previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 95.4% of their operable capacity last week.

Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 10.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.5 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.0 million barrels per day last week, up by 433,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 7.7 million barrels per day, 6.9% more than the same four week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week aver aged 561,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 141,000 barrels per day.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 394.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year.

Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels last week and are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.1 million barrels last week and are about 12% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 0.4 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four week period averaged 21.4 million barrels per day, up by 4.9% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.7 million barrels per day, up by 2.0% from the same period last year.

Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down by 0.8% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 5.0% compared with the same four week period last year.

Source: EIA

Commercial Crude Oil Inventories Decreased by 4.3 Million Barrels

Below are the key takeaways from the weekly report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.6 million barrels per day during the week ending August 31, 2018.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 10.2 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.4 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.7 million barrels per day last week, up by 229,000 barrels per day from the previous week.
Commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.3 million barrels from the previous week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.4 million barrels per day, up by 3.0% from the same period last year.

Monthly Archives: September 2018